Ballot Type: Human

Submitted: Oct. 29, 2017, 7:29 a.m.

Overall Rationale: Playoff Prediction Mode engaged. The top four is my expected playoff field, in order. Next four are most the likely replacements (mostly in order). Next four after that are longer shot replacements (mostly in order). Spots 8-12 do not necessarily indicate that those teams are "Top 12" in the nation or better than a team below them. Just that if a top four/eight team falls or certian conditions are met, those teams would most likely move into the playoff field. Beyond the top 12 it's a more traditional poll.

• Ballot
• Analysis

Rank	Team	Reason
1	Alabama Crimson Tide	The oncoming storm…
2	Ohio State Buckeyes	Until I see different, they are the front-runners in the B1G. And I don't see the PAC or Big 12 putting a team in the top four on merit alone right now.
3	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	I'm as surprised by this as you probably are. But I think their resume got a bump when Georgia met expectations and slaughtered Florida.
4	Clemson Tigers	Of all of the ACC contenders, I think that Clemson looks the best. This is despite their loss to Syracuse. If they win the conference, I think they're in.
5	Georgia Bulldogs	The CFP was created to prevent teams from the same conference from playing for the Natty. As good as Georgia is, until and unless they beat Bama I don't think they make it.  Well, unless there's a healthy dose of chaos.
6	Wisconsin Badgers	If any team looks like it will give Ohio State trouble, it is Wisconsin. Penn State still has a shot, but it would require Ohio State to crap the bed I think.
7	Virginia Tech Hokies	I like VT's resume over Miami in the Coastal right now. But they play on 11/4. So that will (likely) be sorted next week.
8	Oklahoma Sooners	If the Big 12 is putting anyone in right now it would be Oklahoma. Yeah they lost to Iowa State. But their resume looks better overall. But you could easily convince me to swap them with ISU at 12.
9	Penn State Nittany Lions	See above, they need Ohio State and Wisconsin to stumble I think in order to make the playoff.
10	UCF Knights	This is your G5 representative. They're obviously on their way to NY6. But without some chaos I don't see the G5 cracking the top four this year. Especially with ND playing so well.
11	Washington Huskies	This is your PAC representative I guess. I'm not very impressed by this conference if I'm being honest. Which may be unfair, but I just haven't seen it from them.
12	Iowa State Cyclones	They beat both Oklahoma and TCU. This puts them into this third tier of teams. The rest of their resume is so-so, and with two losses they likley need some chaos or at least the Big 12 Title to even be in the serious discussion.
13	Miami Hurricanes
14	Auburn Tigers
15	Stanford Cardinal
16	Oklahoma State Cowboys
17	USC Trojans
18	Memphis Tigers
19	TCU Horned Frogs
20	Virginia Cavaliers
21	Michigan Wolverines
22	Kentucky Wildcats
23	LSU Tigers
24	NC State Wolfpack
25	USF Bulls

Teams Ranked:

Rank	Team	Unusualness
1	Alabama Crimson Tide	0.00
2	Ohio State Buckeyes	0.63
3	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	0.17
4	Clemson Tigers	0.50
5	Georgia Bulldogs	-2.35
6	Wisconsin Badgers	0.00
7	Virginia Tech Hokies	1.49
8	Oklahoma Sooners	0.00
9	Penn State Nittany Lions	-0.04
10	UCF Knights	0.12
11	Washington Huskies	0.00
12	Iowa State Cyclones	0.13
13	Miami Hurricanes	-0.86
14	Auburn Tigers	0.36
15	Stanford Cardinal	0.80
16	Oklahoma State Cowboys	-1.41
17	USC Trojans	0.00
18	Memphis Tigers	0.24
19	TCU Horned Frogs	-3.25
20	Virginia Cavaliers	5.23
21	Michigan Wolverines	0.90
22	Kentucky Wildcats	3.13
23	LSU Tigers	0.00
24	NC State Wolfpack	-0.80
25	USF Bulls	0.00

Omissions:

Team	Unusualness
Mississippi State Bulldogs	0.67
Arizona Wildcats	0.53
Michigan State Spartans	0.32
Washington State Cougars	0.31

Total Score: 24.26