Back to poll results >>

stripes361 Ballot for 2017 Week 7

Ballot Type: Human

Submitted: Oct. 10, 2017, 8:44 a.m.

Overall Rationale: My ballot focuses more on metrics, overall computer strength, and eye test than on resume. Teams can be penalized for unimpressive wins and rewarded for playing well in losses to higher-ranked opponents.As an example, last week I had FSU and Miami ranked 17th and 18th. Miami won a very tight game on the road so they moved up a few spots while FSU dropped a few spots. Both teams played roughly to expectations based on the previous week; therefore, neither moves drastically. I also feel no pressure to "unrank" Florida State, a team which does not have a loss to a squad outside the Top 20, based on W-L. They've played every ranked opponent tight, which suggests a similar level of quality in their team. 

Rank Team Reason
1 Clemson Tigers Unimpressive final scoreline belies the fact that Clemson played well with a healthy Kelley Bryant. If he returns from injury, the Tigers will be fine. 
2 Alabama Crimson Tide The Crimson Tide come back down to earth and fail to jump Clemson this week. The margin between the two is razor-thin right now. 
3 Georgia Bulldogs Georgia continues to dominate all comers. Is Kirby Smart really an elite coach or are the Dawgs taking advantage of a weak SOS? Right now, I'm banking on the former. 
4 Washington Huskies I'm guessing I watched more of the Cal game than Kirk Herbstreit did. I came away impressed once again by every facet of the Huskies' game. Chris Petersen may be the third best coach in college football. 
5 Penn State Nittany Lions Penn State's offense has been concerning for a while now. A three-game losing streak is not out of the question. 
6 Wisconsin Badgers Wisconsin has played a woeful schedule so far and it gets even weaker over the next four weeks. Badgers should have the division wrapped up before they even face Iowa or Minnesota. They have a great chance to jump into the Top 5 if Hornibrook can convince me that he's better than Trace McSorley.  
7 TCU Horned Frogs Before the season, I said that TCU's schedule was too hard to win the Big XII, with both Oklahoma and Oklahoma State on the road. They passed their first big road test with flying colors and avoided a letdown against a tough West Virginia squad. With all due respect to Matt Campbell and Kliff Kingsbury, Gary Patterson should be the current favorite to win Big XII Coach of the Year. 
8 Auburn Tigers Auburn took care of business against an awful Ole Miss squad. The game was actually much more lopsided than the 44-23 scoreline suggests as the Tigers showed the dominance any Top 10 team should against an opponent of that caliber. 
9 Washington State Cougars Cougars dominated my #21 team from last week 33-10 on the road. This may have been the best performance of the week from any team and would have merited a bigger jump if Washington State's computer numbers weren't so low. People are starting to realize how good Mike Leach's defense and running backs are but I can't quite trust them as an elite team yet. However, the schedule has lots of meat left, and their playoff destiny should be firmly within their control. 
10 Ohio State Buckeyes Ohio State drops three spots despite a thoroughly impressive win against an up-and-down Maryland squad. Unfortunately for them, I was keeping them ranked higher than most based on the fact that Oklahoma was my top-ranked team. With the Sooners' downfall, the Buckeyes' offensive ineptitude on September 9 looks much more troubling. 
11 Oklahoma Sooners Perhaps I'm overreacting in dropping Oklahoma 10 spots, but I had already warned the Sooners after the Baylor game that they needed to fix their defense in order to stay at the top. Holding Ohio State to 16 now looks more like a case of bad offense than of good defense. 
12 Notre Dame Fighting Irish Notre Dame jumps from 19th to 12th this week largely because I forgot to jump them last week after Georgia's ascendancy. In the same way that Ohio State's ranking was hurt by Oklahoma's loss, Notre Dame's home loss against the Dawgs no longer looks bad enough to ignore the dominance they've displayed in the rest of their games. For what it's worth, ESPN's FPI has had the Fighting Irish at #10 for a few weeks (this week's Sagarin ratings also have them 10th) and the human rankings are finally catching up to the computers. 
13 USC Trojans USC had their first dominant win in a month but it came against an awful Oregon State team. Utah and Notre Dame will serve as good tests of whether they've righted the ship. 
14 Miami Hurricanes Miami eked out a tough road win against an underrated Seminoles squad, which allows them to jump Oklahoma State and Virginia Tech teams which looked solid but not great against lesser sides. The Hurricanes have a tough road ahead but I wouldn't be surprised to see them win the ACC.  
15 Michigan Wolverines Michigan's offensive struggles finally came back to hurt them. If they can't pass the ball against strong defenses, their ceiling will be very limited this year. 
16 Virginia Tech Hokies Boston College has played a very tough schedule, so it's hard to determine quite how bad they are. But for a team that was blown out by its three quality opponents before this week and barely topped Northern Illinois at home, I'm going to guess for the moment that they're pretty bad. As such, the Hokies' performance on Saturday looks like a letdown for an offense that has been inconsistent this year. The Hokies have only gained more than 21 first downs against East Carolina and Old Dominion, while struggling to move the chains against West Virginia, Delaware, and now BC. The good news for Virginia Tech is that they have a bye week and then home games against UNC and Duke before their next real test arrives. The Hokies should win 10 games in the regular season and their offense has the potential to be spectacular when it all comes together. The key down the stretch may be the status of star wideout Cam Phillips' ankle. 
17 Oklahoma State Cowboys Oklahoma State's been on a roller coaster in my rankings this season and the most recent downslide could continue if they look unimpressive against Baylor. A blowout won't tell us much but a close contest would be a very bad look. 
18 Stanford Cardinal Stanford only moves up two spots in my ballot this week after beating a Utah squad that I wasn't close to ranking in the first place. The Utes struggled against BYU and Arizona while also beating North Dakota and San Jose State. As such, the Cardinal rise only through attrition. The real test comes next week against Oregon in a game that Stanford need to win to keep their conference title hopes alive. 
19 NC State Wolfpack The Wolfpack had one of the best wins of the week, dispatching a Louisville team I have believed in the whole season. My ranking has finally caught up with their computer numbers. As long as they avoid the road letdown against a bad Pitt squad next week, Dave Doeren's side will finally have turned me into a believer. 
20 Florida State Seminoles I'm doubtful as to whether any other human ballots will still have Florida State this week but I'm sticking by my guns. The 'Noles were fairly competitive with 2nd-ranked Alabama and played toe-to-toe with Miami and NC State teams which are both ranked in the Top 20 of my current poll. Games against Duke, Louisville, BC, and Syracuse give them a perfect opportunity to get a win streak going and justify my faith in them. Start losing those games, however, and FSU may be in danger of missing bowl season altogether. 
21 UCF Knights Central Florida has outclassed their competition so far and may only play one or two close games the entire season. I expect them to continue to win large each and every week. 
22 James Madison Dukes The Dukes' bye week came at a perfect time to prepare for a crucial CAA matchup against Villanova. A favorable schedule has them set up nicely to repeat as conference champs.  
23 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets Georgia Tech has looked dominant against three weak opponents after an inexplicable loss to Tennessee to open the season. Can they keep up the high level of play against Miami, their first high-level opponent of the season? 
24 Oregon Ducks Oregon suffered a bad loss to Washington State and still doesn't have any impressive wins this year. My lack of confidence in other Top 25 Bubble teams combined with strong computer numbers is keeping the Ducks afloat for now. 
25 Texas Tech Red Raiders Mississippi State and Texas are ranked higher than the Red Raiders in both FPI and the Sagarin ratings. The Bulldogs miss out because their last two games have been blowout losses while I don't entirely trust Texas yet after two close wins against teams I'm not high on. Michigan State has some great performances this year and is 22nd in Sagarin but somehow only 42nd in FPI. The 25th spot was a tossup between Texas Tech and Michigan State but in the absence of certainty I'm deferring to FPI for now. 

Back to poll results >>