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boonamobile Ballot for 2017 Week 7

Ballot Type: Computer

Submitted: Oct. 10, 2017, 8:45 a.m.

Overall Rationale: I experimented with some pretty significant changes to my algorithm this week, but I've decided to stick with the original version for now.

Rank Team Reason
1 Clemson Tigers 6-0 against teams that are otherwise 21-9 (~70%) gives Clemson a comfortable lead over the rest of the pack.
2 Alabama Crimson Tide FSU's 1-3 start isn't helping the Tide, whose best win by far came this weekend against Texas A&M.
3 Penn State Nittany Lions 6-0 is 6-0, but Penn State's biggest win so far has come against #26 4-2 Iowa.
4 Wisconsin Badgers 5-0 against otherwise 12-12 competition (whose other opponents are 44-44), and only 2 P5 opponents so far.
5 Georgia Bulldogs 6-0 Georgia's opponents are an impressive 17-5 (77.3%) against teams other than Georgia, but their decision to play an FCS team waters down the strength of their overall resume.
6 Washington State Cougars 6-0 against otherwise 14-10 competition, including an FCS program and decent wins against USC and Oregon.
7 Washington Huskies 6-0 against otherwise 11-12 competition (who's other opponents are 41-34, or 54.7%), including an FCS program and a couple bottom-feeder P5 programs (Rutgers, Oregon St).
8 UCF Knights 4-0 against teams that are otherwise 12-5 (~70%), including 4-1 Memphis and 3-2 Maryland.
9 TCU Horned Frogs 5-0 With a win over 4-1 Oklahoma St
10 USC Trojans The first team in my rankings with a loss (to undefeated #6 6-0 Washington St), USC cracks the top 10 based on the strength of their 5-1 record against opponents that are otherwise 20-9, especially 3-2 Texas and 4-2 Stanford.
11 San Diego State Aztecs If Stanford and NIU keep winning, the 6-0 Aztecs have a chance to crack the top 10 this season. Their win over P5 ASU doesn't hurt either.
12 Navy Midshipmen 5-0 against otherwise 10-13 (43.5%) competition, whose other opponents are 47-32 (59.5%). Without any signature wins, Navy is here mostly because they are undefeated, and without any premier games left on their schedule to prove they belong, I suspect they'll drop as the season goes on.
13 Michigan Wolverines 4-1 UM's opponents are 12-9 (57.1%) against other teams, who themselves are 52-24 (68.4%) against other competition -- giving them a decent SoS. But when you take a closer look, you realize their best wins are over mediocre Florida and Purdue teams, with the other two wins coming against struggling Cincinnati and Air Force. Their remaining schedule leaves plenty of opportunities (OSU, PSU, etc) to prove themselves and move up.
14 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 5-1 against otherwise 17-12 (58.6%) competition, with no FCS opponents and wins over #15 MSU, Notre Dame's lone loss came against #5 Georgia. For now, games against mediocre-to-bad G5 competition (Temple, Miami OH) are holding them back.
15 Michigan State Spartans MSU debuts at #15 thanks to a 4-1 record against otherwise 17-7 (70.8%) competition, along with big wins over #13 4-1 Michigan and #26 3-2 Iowa, in addition to a relatively strong SoS and lack of FCS opponents. I'm not thrilled my algorithm has them and Notre Dame both behind Michigan, but we'll see if that changes as the season goes on.
16 Ohio State Buckeyes 5-1 against otherwise 16-9 (64%) competition. Decent OOC schedule and wins over P5 opponents Indiana and Maryland with no FCS opponent, with their only loss to #21 4-1 Oklahoma. Also plenty of opportunity to separate themselves with their B1G East schedule ahead of them.
17 Miami Hurricanes 4-0, but with FSU not living up to expectations, Duke is their best win -- and their decision to play an FCS opponent brings down their average win score (and strength of schedule). They'll benefit from playing more games.
18 Oklahoma State Cowboys 4-1 OK State's opponents are only 12-10 (54.5%), with their best win by far coming against 4-1 Texas Tech, and their loss coming against undefeated #9 TCU.
19 NC State Wolfpack 5-1 against otherwise 15-7 (68.2%) competition, with a win over 4-2 Louisville and a loss to 4-2 South Carolina, their choice to play an FCS opponent waters down their SoS.
20 Auburn Tigers 5-1 but with an FCS win and a loss to #1 Clemson.
21 Oklahoma Sooners Though 4-1 and boasting a win over #16 Ohio State, Oklahoma really hasn't done much outside of that game; not counting OSU, Oklahoma's opponents are 5-12 against other teams, including 0-5 Baylor, 0-6 UTEP, and 3-2 Tulane, as well as an ugly loss to 3-2 ISU.
22 Florida Gators The worst win % of any time in my rankings, 3-2 Florida gets a big SoS boost by having played teams that are a combined 17-6 (73.9%) against competition that's 44-32 (57.9%) [not counting games against Florida]. They have not played any G5 or FCS opponents, so their 3 wins give them decent points, and their two losses don't hurt them so much having come against apparently good LSU and Michigan teams.
23 Houston Cougars 4-1 against teams that are 14-9 (61%) with decent wins over 3-2 Arizona and 4-2 SMU, and their only loss coming to 4-1 Texas Tech.
24 South Carolina Gamecocks 4-2 South Carolina is here thanks to their opponents' record of 18-10 (64.3%) and opponents' opponents' record of 53-40 (57%). They feature a win over 5-1 NC State to partially offset losses to 5-1 Kentucky and 4-2 Texas A&M. They get a slight boost from having played only one G5 and zero FCS opponents so far this season.
25 Kentucky Wildcats 5-1 Kentucky just barely makes the cut, coming in right behind a team they beat in 4-2 South Carolina. A weak SoS so far is holding Kentucky back for now.

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