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f0gax Ballot for 2016 Week 12

Ballot Type: Human

Submitted: Nov. 14, 2016, 2:42 p.m.

Overall Rationale: Playoff Prediction Mode engaged. The top four is my expected playoff field, in order. Next four are most the likely replacements (mostly in order). Next four after that are longer shot replacements (mostly in order). Spots 8-12 do not necessarily indicate that those teams are "Top 12" in the nation or better than a team below them. Just that if a top four/eight team falls or certian conditions are met, those teams would most likely move into the playoff field. Beyond the top 12 it's a more traditional poll.The CFP committee has shown certain preferences through two seasons, this poll reflects that through the top 12. 

Rank Team Reason
1 Alabama Crimson Tide New boss, same as the old boss…
2 Michigan Wolverines Yeah. They lost. But the B1G is still theirs to take. And even with a loss (plus wins against OSU and Wisc/Neb they'll have a solid resume.
3 Clemson Tigers Again, yeah they lost. So what. A one-loss ACC champ is going to the playoff. And right now Clemson has the inside track. They have just Wake between them and Orlando.
4 Washington Huskies Once again, they lost, but it may not matter. If the Huskies win out they have to hope that their resume looks better than West Virginia.
5 West Virginia Mountaineers Beat Oklahoma, and then hope for some mild chaos. The losses by Washington and Michigan have increased their odds.
6 Penn State Nittany Lions Note: Normally I wouldn't rank them at all (personal probation), but they can't be disregarded at this point for CFP predictions. They hold the tie breaker with OSU, so if OSU beats Michigan PSU goes to Indy. A win there would make them the one-loss B1G champ. And such a team is very likely to be in the playoffs.
7 Louisville Cardinals They get in if they win out and Clemson loses. Pretty cut and dried.
8 Western Michigan Broncos Row. The. Boat. If they stay undefeated and we end up with two "open" spots I don't see how they can be ignored.
9 San Diego State Aztecs Copy/Paste from last week: Potential one-loss MWC champion. Again, Team Chaos would need to rear it's head here for the Aztecs to sniff the playoff. And they probably need WMU to fall just to make it to NY6.
10 Oklahoma Sooners Beat West Virginia, and then hope for a ton of chaos. Two losses are pretty damning.
11 Washington State Cougars Win out (Colorado, Washington, PACCG) and hope for chaos.
12 Florida Gators Long shot. Still won't argue homerism. But **IF** they win out (LSU, FSU, Bama), **AND** there's a lot of chaos the committee is not likely to pass up the SEC Champion. UF over Tennessee because I can't see a team with three losses being in the playoff this year. When Florida loses to LSU then they'll be out of the top 12.
13 Ohio State Buckeyes Michigan's loss actually hurt them. Their loss to PSU puts them technically in third place in the East. PSU has to lose to one of MSU (lol) or Rutgers (lol x 1000), and OSU has to beat Michigan in order to make it to the B1GCG.
14 Wisconsin Badgers
15 Oklahoma State Cowboys
16 LSU Tigers
17 Houston Cougars
18 Auburn Tigers
19 Florida State Seminoles
20 Tennessee Volunteers
21 Navy Midshipmen
22 Nebraska Cornhuskers
23 USC Trojans
24 Colorado Buffaloes
25 Utah Utes

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