Ballot Type: Human
Submitted: Nov. 14, 2016, 2:42 p.m.
Overall Rationale: Playoff Prediction Mode engaged. The top four is my expected playoff field, in order. Next four are most the likely replacements (mostly in order). Next four after that are longer shot replacements (mostly in order). Spots 8-12 do not necessarily indicate that those teams are "Top 12" in the nation or better than a team below them. Just that if a top four/eight team falls or certian conditions are met, those teams would most likely move into the playoff field. Beyond the top 12 it's a more traditional poll.The CFP committee has shown certain preferences through two seasons, this poll reflects that through the top 12. 
Rank | Team | Reason |
---|---|---|
1 | Alabama Crimson Tide | New boss, same as the old boss… |
2 | Michigan Wolverines | Yeah. They lost. But the B1G is still theirs to take. And even with a loss (plus wins against OSU and Wisc/Neb they'll have a solid resume. |
3 | Clemson Tigers | Again, yeah they lost. So what. A one-loss ACC champ is going to the playoff. And right now Clemson has the inside track. They have just Wake between them and Orlando. |
4 | Washington Huskies | Once again, they lost, but it may not matter. If the Huskies win out they have to hope that their resume looks better than West Virginia. |
5 | West Virginia Mountaineers | Beat Oklahoma, and then hope for some mild chaos. The losses by Washington and Michigan have increased their odds. |
6 | Penn State Nittany Lions | Note: Normally I wouldn't rank them at all (personal probation), but they can't be disregarded at this point for CFP predictions. They hold the tie breaker with OSU, so if OSU beats Michigan PSU goes to Indy. A win there would make them the one-loss B1G champ. And such a team is very likely to be in the playoffs. |
7 | Louisville Cardinals | They get in if they win out and Clemson loses. Pretty cut and dried. |
8 | Western Michigan Broncos | Row. The. Boat. If they stay undefeated and we end up with two "open" spots I don't see how they can be ignored. |
9 | San Diego State Aztecs | Copy/Paste from last week: Potential one-loss MWC champion. Again, Team Chaos would need to rear it's head here for the Aztecs to sniff the playoff. And they probably need WMU to fall just to make it to NY6. |
10 | Oklahoma Sooners | Beat West Virginia, and then hope for a ton of chaos. Two losses are pretty damning. |
11 | Washington State Cougars | Win out (Colorado, Washington, PACCG) and hope for chaos. |
12 | Florida Gators | Long shot. Still won't argue homerism. But **IF** they win out (LSU, FSU, Bama), **AND** there's a lot of chaos the committee is not likely to pass up the SEC Champion. UF over Tennessee because I can't see a team with three losses being in the playoff this year. When Florida loses to LSU then they'll be out of the top 12. |
13 | Ohio State Buckeyes | Michigan's loss actually hurt them. Their loss to PSU puts them technically in third place in the East. PSU has to lose to one of MSU (lol) or Rutgers (lol x 1000), and OSU has to beat Michigan in order to make it to the B1GCG. |
14 | Wisconsin Badgers | |
15 | Oklahoma State Cowboys | |
16 | LSU Tigers | |
17 | Houston Cougars | |
18 | Auburn Tigers | |
19 | Florida State Seminoles | |
20 | Tennessee Volunteers | |
21 | Navy Midshipmen | |
22 | Nebraska Cornhuskers | |
23 | USC Trojans | |
24 | Colorado Buffaloes | |
25 | Utah Utes |
Teams Ranked:
Rank | Team | Unusualness |
---|---|---|
1 | Alabama Crimson Tide | 0.00 |
2 | Michigan Wolverines | 0.77 |
3 | Clemson Tigers | 0.19 |
4 | Washington Huskies | 0.72 |
5 | West Virginia Mountaineers | 0.74 |
6 | Penn State Nittany Lions | 0.58 |
7 | Louisville Cardinals | -1.06 |
8 | Western Michigan Broncos | 0.00 |
9 | San Diego State Aztecs | 3.75 |
10 | Oklahoma Sooners | 0.00 |
11 | Washington State Cougars | 0.81 |
12 | Florida Gators | 2.23 |
13 | Ohio State Buckeyes | -9.49 |
14 | Wisconsin Badgers | -2.26 |
15 | Oklahoma State Cowboys | 0.00 |
16 | LSU Tigers | 0.00 |
17 | Houston Cougars | 3.80 |
18 | Auburn Tigers | 0.00 |
19 | Florida State Seminoles | 0.00 |
20 | Tennessee Volunteers | 2.55 |
21 | Navy Midshipmen | 3.74 |
22 | Nebraska Cornhuskers | -0.42 |
23 | USC Trojans | -0.98 |
24 | Colorado Buffaloes | -2.86 |
25 | Utah Utes | -1.93 |
Omissions:
Team | Unusualness |
---|---|
Boise State Broncos | 0.80 |
Troy Trojans | 0.07 |
Texas A&M Aggies | 0.13 |
Total Score: 39.89