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f0gax Ballot for 2016 Week 11

Ballot Type: Human

Submitted: Nov. 6, 2016, 8:29 a.m.

Overall Rationale: Playoff Prediction Mode engaged. The top four is my expected playoff field, in order. Next four are most the likely replacements (mostly in order). Next four after that are longer shot replacements (mostly in order). Spots 9-12 do not necessarily indicate that those teams are "Top 12" in the nation or better than a team below them. Just that if a top four/eight team falls or certain conditions are met, those teams would most likely move into the playoff field. Beyond the top 12 it's a more traditional poll.The CFP committee has shown certain preferences through two seasons, this poll reflects my interpretations of those tendencies through the top 12. 

Rank Team Reason
1 Alabama Crimson Tide The sound of inevitability…
2 Clemson Tigers Clemson, Michigan. Michigan, Clemson. Two and three are interchangeable.
3 Michigan Wolverines Clemson, Michigan. Michigan, Clemson. Two and three are interchangeable.
4 Washington Huskies Impressive. With the Big XII in shambles, it does look like Washington has a clear path to the playoff.
5 Ohio State Buckeyes If Ohio State can beat Michigan then they should go on to the B1G CG. And a one-loss champ of the B1G is going to the playoff. No question.
6 West Virginia Mountaineers WVU is the only Big XII school that might be able to sneak in should either Clemson or Washington stumble.
7 Louisville Cardinals They look very good nearly every week. And their one loss is to Clemson. But unless Clemson loses their next two (final two ACC games), then Lousiville is "stuck" with an NY6 bid.
8 Western Michigan Broncos This is where the "mathematical" #2 SEC team should go. But with Florida and aTm shitting the bed I don't really see another SEC team that could qualify.
9 Auburn Tigers Long shot for the playoff to be sure. They would have to beat Alabama, win the SEC, and hope that about four or five teams also lose. I don't see a two-loss team in the final four this year.
10 San Diego State Aztecs Potential one-loss MWC champion. Again, Team Chaos would need to rear it's head here for the Aztecs to sniff the playoff. And they probably need WMU to fall just to make it to NY6.
11 Oklahoma Sooners The theme for 9-12 should just be "needs a lot of chaos". OU *is* undefeated in conference and has WVU on the schedule. Enough chaos and they could be in the picture.
12 Florida Gators I found it hard to make a choice here. But running the scenarios, this is what I came up with for the last long-shot. It would take UF finding a way to win the next three games (USCe, LSU, FSU). Then Auburn beats Bama for SECW title. UF beats Auburn for SEC title. Michigan or Clemson loses two conference games (could include CG). And then hope that the Florida "name" carries more weight than WMU. I won't argue over claims of blatant homerism. I had to find a 12 seed. And "mathematically" they are still alive.
13 Washington State Cougars
14 Wisconsin Badgers
15 Oklahoma State Cowboys
16 LSU Tigers I entertained putting them in as the 12 seed. But with a three defeats and a loss to Bama already, they'd need even more chaos than Auburn or UF to take the SEC's bid. 
17 Houston Cougars
18 Arkansas Razorbacks Remember. UF's at 12 because they have a less unlikely path. Not because they're better. 
19 Virginia Tech Hokies
20 Florida State Seminoles
21 Tennessee Volunteers
22 North Carolina Tar Heels
23 Navy Midshipmen
24 Nebraska Cornhuskers
25 Texas A&M Aggies

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