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BosskOnASegway Ballot for 2016 Week 5

Ballot Type: Hybrid

Submitted: Sept. 26, 2016, 11:55 a.m.

Overall Rationale: My mid-season model combines 4 polls, my an unseeded max likelihood Elo poll, an unseed page rank poll, an unseed quality of wins  ELO based mode, and my personal human poll. My personal poll counts for double each computer poll at this time. My early season seeding model will be faded out to a model that includes 3 computer polls that only use data from this season. I may eventually reduce my personal vote influence by adding a 4th poll or remove it entirely with a 5th but that remains to be seen.I have a firm rule in my personal polls, no team with a record under 0.667 can appear in the rankings in the first 6 weeks.  Feel free to ask questions about any human poll results. The computer polls will be understandably strange this early.The human poll always breaks ties. If both teams are outside the top 25 in the human poll, but makes the top 25, the MLE ranking will the tie once it is up and running.  At the present the MLE model breaks the tie in these cases. The table of rankings can be found in the poll thread. I am more than willing to justify any of my human rankings or give any additional details about the computer models functions. Note: NR in the human poll ranking means I did not have them in my top 25.  This is the first week teams with a loss can appear in my human poll.  Also note, I do my human poll before running any of the computer polls or looking at the AP poll, but I do run the advance metrics (though those are sparse this early).  This is to prevent the computer results or AP poll from influencing my ranking, it also prevents me from manipulating the final results with my rankings.  Also note: There is a huge drop between #16 and #17. It is very hard to get confidence in teams outside West Virginia this early.

Rank Team Reason
1 Louisville Cardinals Score: 121/125 Human Rank: #3
2 Michigan Wolverines Score: 107/125 Human Rank: #5
3 Tennessee Volunteers Score: 99/125 Human Rank: #10
4 Alabama Crimson Tide Score: 98/125 Human Rank: #4 
5 Ohio State Buckeyes Score: 95/125 Human Rank: #2
6 Houston Cougars Score: 95/125 Human Rank: #7
7 Texas A&M Aggies Score: 94/125 Human Rank: #11
8 Wisconsin Badgers Score: 88/125 Human Rank: #1
9 Clemson Tigers Score: 84/125 Human Rank: #8
10 Stanford Cardinal Score: 83/125 Human Rank: #6
11 Florida State Seminoles Score: 71/125 Human Rank: #15
12 Baylor Bears Score: 67/125 Human Rank: #12
13 Washington Huskies Score: 59/125 Human Rank: #9
14 Arizona State Sun Devils Score: 57/125 Human Rank #19
15 Nebraska Cornhuskers Score: 45/125 Human Rank: #14
16 West Virginia Mountaineers Score: 44/125 Human Rank:#20
17 Miami Hurricanes Score: 26/125 Human Rank #13
18 Florida Gators Score: 23/125 Human Rank: #23
19 Ole Miss Rebels Score: 23/125 Human Rank: NR
20 Toledo Rockets Score: 22/125 Human Rank: NR
21 Wake Forest Demon Deacons Score: 22/125 Human Rank:NR
22 Utah Utes Score: 20/125 Human Rank: #16
23 Minnesota Golden Gophers Score: 20/125 Human Rank: NR
24 Michigan State Spartans Score: 18/125 Human Rank: #17
25 Arkansas Razorbacks Score: 16/125 Human Rank: #18 Next 5 Out: Army(15,NR),  Western Michigan(Score:15, Human Rank: NR), Georgia(13,NR), San Diego State(13, NR), Virginia Tech(12,24)

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