Ballot Type: Hybrid
Submitted: Sept. 19, 2016, 1:56 p.m.
Overall Rationale: My mid-season model combines 4 polls, my 25% seeded max likelihood Elo poll, an unseed page rank poll, an unseed ELO based mode, and my personal human poll. My personal poll counts for double each computer poll at this time. My early season seeding model will be faded out to a model that includes 3 computer polls that only use data from this season. I may eventually reduce my personal vote influence by adding a 4th poll or remove it entirely with a 5th but that remains to be seen.I have a firm rule in my personal polls, no team with a record under 0.667 can appear in the rankings in the first 6 weeks, after 6 weeks no team with a record under 0.750 can appear.Feel free to ask questions about any human poll results. The computer polls will be understandably strange this early.The human poll always breaks ties. If both teams are outside the top 25 in the human poll, but makes the top 25, the MLE ranking will the tie once it is up and running.  At the present the MLE model breaks the tie in these cases. The table of rankings can be found in the poll thread. I am more than willing to justify any of my human rankings or give any additional details about the computer models functions. Note: NR in the human poll ranking means I did not have them in my top 25.  This is the first week teams with a loss can appear in my human poll.  Also note, I do my human poll before running any of the computer polls or looking at the AP poll, but I do run the advance metrics (though those are sparse this early).  This is to prevent the computer results or AP poll from influencing my ranking, it also prevents me from manipulating the final results with my rankings. (Eg, I didn't move Louisville down to# 4 and Ohio State to #1 to put Ohio State #1 to feed my team ego. Nor Michigan down to #10 to put them below Alabama.)
Rank | Team | Reason |
---|---|---|
1 | Louisville Cardinals | Score: 115/125 Human Rank: #2 |
2 | Ohio State Buckeyes | Score: 112/125 Human Rank: #3 |
3 | Michigan Wolverines | Score: 101/125 Human Rank: #7 |
4 | Alabama Crimson Tide | Score: 98/125 Human Rank: #1 |
5 | Stanford Cardinal | Score: 87/125 Human Rank: #5 |
6 | Wisconsin Badgers | Score: 83/125 Human Rank: #6 |
7 | Houston Cougars | Score: 82/125 Human Rank: #4 |
8 | Tennessee Volunteers | Score: 72/125 Human Rank: #10 |
9 | Washington Huskies | Score: 72/125 Human Rank: #12 |
10 | Texas A&M Aggies | Score: 68/125 Human Rank: #13 |
11 | West Virginia Mountaineers | Score: 66/125 Human Rank: #14 |
12 | Baylor Bears | Score: 55/125 Human Rank: #11 |
13 | Clemson Tigers | Score: 51/125 Human Rank: #9 |
14 | Nebraska Cornhuskers | Score: 51/125 Human Rank: #15 |
15 | Miami Hurricanes | Score: 47/125 Human Rank: #16 |
16 | Arizona Wildcats | Score: 46/125 Human Rank: NR |
17 | San Diego State Aztecs | Score: 45/125 Human Rank: NR |
18 | Florida Gators | Score: 43/125 Human Rank: #19 |
19 | Central Michigan Chippewas | Score: 43/125 Human Rank: NR |
20 | Michigan State Spartans | Score: 36/125 Human Rank: #8 |
21 | LSU Tigers | Score: 28/125 Human Rank: #17 |
22 | Florida State Seminoles | Score: 27/125 Human Rank: #20 |
23 | USF Bulls | Score: 25/125 Human Rank: #22 |
24 | Iowa Hawkeyes | Score: 20/125 Human Rank: #25 |
25 | Arkansas Razorbacks | Score: 19/125 Human Rank: #21 Next 5 Out: Georgia Tech (Score: 18, Human: NR), Utah(16, 18), Georgia(16,24), Boise(15, NR), Oklahoma(10, NR), Oregon(9, NR) |
Teams Ranked:
Rank | Team | Unusualness |
---|---|---|
1 | Louisville Cardinals | 0.35 |
2 | Ohio State Buckeyes | 0.00 |
3 | Michigan Wolverines | 0.25 |
4 | Alabama Crimson Tide | -1.73 |
5 | Stanford Cardinal | 0.00 |
6 | Wisconsin Badgers | 0.95 |
7 | Houston Cougars | 0.00 |
8 | Tennessee Volunteers | 0.92 |
9 | Washington Huskies | 0.00 |
10 | Texas A&M Aggies | 0.00 |
11 | West Virginia Mountaineers | 6.72 |
12 | Baylor Bears | 0.48 |
13 | Clemson Tigers | -0.81 |
14 | Nebraska Cornhuskers | 0.00 |
15 | Miami Hurricanes | 0.00 |
16 | Arizona Wildcats | 9.22 |
17 | San Diego State Aztecs | 0.82 |
18 | Florida Gators | 0.00 |
19 | Central Michigan Chippewas | 2.62 |
20 | Michigan State Spartans | -1.92 |
21 | LSU Tigers | 0.00 |
22 | Florida State Seminoles | -0.28 |
23 | USF Bulls | 1.10 |
24 | Iowa Hawkeyes | 0.79 |
25 | Arkansas Razorbacks | -1.55 |
Omissions:
Team | Unusualness |
---|---|
Georgia Bulldogs | 1.46 |
Utah Utes | 0.41 |
Texas Longhorns | 0.24 |
Total Score: 32.61